The Matchday 1 encounter of the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Olympiacos (Greece) and Pafos (Cyprus) will take place on September 17 at the Karaiskakis Stadium in Piraeus. Olympiacos vs. Pafos: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Olympiacos
After three years, the team from Piraeus triumphed in their national championship, earning a direct ticket to the main stage of the elite European competition. The last time they reached the autumn stage of the Champions League directly was exactly 10 years ago. In the group stage of this tournament, the Greeks last played in the 2020/21 season, but with just one win and five losses, Olympiacos failed to progress to the playoffs. Additionally, the club's winless streak in the Champions League stands at four matches (3 draws and 1 loss).
- The club has secured only 2 wins in regular time in their last 11 matches in this European competition (3 draws and 6 losses).
- No more than two goals have been scored in 90 minutes in 7 of Olympiacos's last 8 home games in the Champions League.
- The Greeks have not scored more than 1 goal in regular time in their last 6 home matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Olympiacos (4-2-3-1)
Alexandros Paschalakis – Costinha, Panagiotis Retsos, Julian Biancone, Francisco Ortega – Diogo Nascimento, Dani Garcia – Daniel Podence, Chiquinho, Gabriel Strefezza – Mehdi Taremi.
Due to suspension, the main goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis is unavailable. Due to injury, forward Roman Yaremchuk is also out.
Pafos
Last season, the club won the national championship for the first time in its brief history, earning a spot in the 2nd qualifying round of the Champions League. Interestingly, a year earlier, the Cypriots debuted in European competitions and even reached the last 16 of the Conference League. This season, they will play in the main stage of the Champions League for the first time. Juan Carlos Carcedo's team confidently overcame three experienced European opponents: Maccabi Tel Aviv, Dynamo Kyiv, and Red Star Belgrade, without suffering a single defeat (4 wins and 2 draws).
- No more than two goals have been scored in regular time in 5 of Pafos's last 6 matches in the Champions League.
- Pafos has a 3-match winning streak in regular time away in this tournament.
- The team has scored in regular time in 7 of their last 8 away games in European competitions.
Predicted lineup for Pafos (4-3-3)
Neofytos Michael – David Gomez Goldar, Derrick Luckassen, Bruno Langa, Bruno – Ivan Sunjic, Vlad Dragomir, Pepe Rodrigues – Mislav Orsic, Joao Correia, Anderson Oliveira Silva.
Referee
Istvan Kovacs (Romania)
Matches – 15 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 48;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.2;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 20%.
Olympiacos vs. Pafos: Match Prediction
The Cypriots are debuting in the autumn stage of the Champions League. The team will face much tougher competition in the group stage than in the qualifiers, but they have already proven they are not afraid of formidable opponents. This summer, Pafos unexpectedly and confidently dealt with several strong opponents, without losing a single match. It's also worth noting that in 6 qualification matches of the Champions League, the Cypriots never conceded more than 1 goal.
The Greeks have waited five years to return to the main stage of the Champions League. I believe it will be challenging for them not only against top teams but also against opponents like the islanders. Even if Olympiacos wins this match, it is unlikely to be a convincing victory. The team from Piraeus has not won by a margin of two or more goals in 13 consecutive matches in this European competition. At home, they have only one such victory in the Champions League in their last 10 matches.
My prediction – Pafos with a handicap (+1.5)
